When can Liverpool win the PL title?

Gerard Brand

@gedbrand10

Liverpool could claim their first title in 30 years at Goodison Park or the Etihad Stadium

Last Updated: 24/01/20 12:42pm

It’s becoming inevitable that Liverpool will claim their first title in 30 years, but when exactly will it happen? And can they secure it at the home of a rival?

Here, we do the maths on the possibilities, how they can win the title at rivals Everton or Manchester City, and what records they could break along the way…

What if Liverpool and Man City keep winning?

Liverpool already have the most points after 23 games in Premier League history
Liverpool already have the most points after 23 games in Premier League history

Liverpool need 27 points from their remaining 15 games to secure the Premier League title – that’s nine wins.

So if both Liverpool and City keep winning, Liverpool’s ninth win, as the current schedule goes, would be at the Etihad against Manchester City on the weekend of April 4. That could also be the game Liverpool equal Arsenal’s 49-game unbeaten record, as the current schedule goes.

If both teams continue to win at the same rate – Liverpool are averaging an incredible 2.9 points per game, while City are at 2.1 points per game – as the current schedule goes Liverpool could claim the title at home to Crystal Palace on March 21.

You keep saying ‘as the current schedule goes’…

Liverpool could win the league at the Etihad Stadium against Man City on the weekend of April 4
Liverpool could win the league at the Etihad Stadium against Man City on the weekend of April 4

Not quite. There could be some fixture confusion if Liverpool keep winning on all fronts.

If Liverpool make it to the quarter-final of the FA Cup, their home match with Crystal Palace on March 21 will be moved, and it’s hard to see it being moved before the Man City game on April 4, with an international break straight after the FA Cup round.

Therefore, the ninth game – if Liverpool and City keep winning – could be against Aston Villa at Anfield on the weekend of April 11.

Fixtures could also change with FA Cup semi-finals scheduled for the weekend of April 18, and March and April’s television fixtures to be announced soon.

Liverpool’s remaining PL fixtures

Game Opponent Date
1 West Ham (A) Jan 29
2 Southampton (H) Feb 1`
3 Norwich (A) Feb 15 Live on Sky
4 West Ham (H) Feb 24 Live on Sky
5 Watford (A) Feb 29 Live on Sky
6 Bournemouth (H) March 7
7 Everton (A) March 14
8 Crystal Palace (H) March 21* *Possible FA Cup 1/4 final
9 Man City (A) April 4
10 Aston Villa (H) April 11
11 Brighton (A) April 18* *Possible FA Cup 1/2 final
12 Burnley (H) April 25
13 Arsenal (A) May 2
14 Chelsea (H) May 9
15 Newcastle (A) May 17

But what if Liverpool keep winning and City don’t?

3:00
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Liverpool’s win against Wolves in the Premier League.
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Liverpool’s win against Wolves in the Premier League.

Not an impossibility, given City’s run of fixtures before the weekend of April 4 includes Tottenham (away), Leicester (away), Arsenal (home), Man Utd (away) and Chelsea (away).

City’s fixtures before playing Liverpool

Game Opponent Date
1 Tottenham (A) Feb 2 Live on Sky
2 West Ham (H) Feb 9 Live on Sky
3 Leicester (A) Feb 22 Live on Sky
4 Arsenal (H) March 1 Live on Sky
5 Man Utd (A) March 7
6 Burnley (H) March 14
7 Chelsea (A) March 21 *Possible FA Cup 1/4 final
8 Liverpool (H) April 4

The very earliest Liverpool could win the title is away at Watford on Saturday, February 29, live on Sky Sports Premier League at 5.30pm. However that would mean Liverpool winning all of their matches, and City losing all of theirs.

At that point, Liverpool would have 10 games remaining, smashing the record for most games remaining when a title has been secured (five – Man Utd 2000/01 and Man City 2017/18). Man Utd also hold the record for the earliest title-winning date – April 14 in the 2000/01 season.

More realistically, if Liverpool keep winning and City slip up a couple of times along the way, the Reds can claim the title at home to Bournemouth on the weekend of March 7, or, and this is a tad more juicy, at Goodison Park on the weekend of March 14.

Goodison?! Tell me more! What has to happen for Liverpool to win the league at Everton?

Liverpool could also win the title at the home of their rivals Everton on the weekend of March 14
Liverpool could also win the title at the home of their rivals Everton on the weekend of March 14

If Liverpool keep winning, and City drop six points between now and the Merseyside derby, Jurgen Klopp’s side would claim the title at Goodison Park on the weekend of March 14.

It would be only the second time a team have secured the Premier League title at the home of their local rivals, after Arsenal won the league at White Hart Lane in 2004.

Wait, all of this depends on Liverpool winning every game. What if they slip up a couple times?

Liverpool already have the most points after 23 games in Premier League history
Liverpool already have the most points after 23 games in Premier League history

We’re going with current form, so you can’t blame us. But of course it would take an incredible effort for Liverpool to keep winning, and they would be smashing records along the way.

There are many possibilities if Liverpool drop points here and there, so it’s important to keep tabs on those 27 points that Liverpool need, and work from there.

For instance, if they beat West Ham on Wednesday, that will go down to 24 points.

If they then beat Southampton on February 1 – take three points off – it goes down to 21 points.

If City then lose at Spurs on February 2 – take three points off – it goes down to 18 points.

Or if City draw at Spurs – take two points off – it goes to 19 points.

Or if City win at Spurs – don’t take any points off – it’s 21 points again.

And so on and so forth…

Don’t forget about Leicester, either. The maths changes slightly if the Foxes overtake City in the coming weeks; they’re currently three points behind.

I’ve only just taken the Christmas tree down, and Liverpool could win the title pretty soon. What records could they break?

Liverpool are well on course to beat Manchester City's records from 2017/18
Liverpool are well on course to beat Manchester City’s records from 2017/18
  • The points record of 100 (Man City 2017/18) could be smashed; Liverpool will have 112 points if they win every game, and their current points-per-game rate has them finishing on 110.
  • The biggest points gap between first and second is 19 points (Man City 2017/18) – if Liverpool win their game in hand against West Ham on Wednesday, the gap will be 19. In this instance, City need to better Liverpool’s results between now and the end of the season to protect that record.
  • Liverpool need 11 wins from their final 15 games to beat the win record of 32 (Man City 2017/18).
  • Liverpool are four games shy of equalling the most consecutive wins (18 – Man City August to December 2017).
  • However, Liverpool need another 52 goals to break the record for most goals, which is 106 (Man City 2017/18), and their current goals-per-game rate would have them finishing on well short on 89.

Follow the action with Sky Sports

You can follow Liverpool’s progress on all fronts, starting with a dedicated live blog for the FA Cup fourth-round clash at Shrewsbury on the Sky Sports website and App on Sunday, followed by a live blog and full-time highlights of the trip to West Ham on Wednesday in the Premier League.

Liverpool’s February games against Norwich (away – Feb 15), West Ham (home – Feb 24) and Watford (away – Feb 29) will all be shown on Sky Sports, with the live March Premier League fixtures soon to be announced.

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Source : Sky Sports