How’d that turn out? Revisiting some Apple-killing technologies.

It’s time once again to play the new game show that’s sweeping the nation: How’d THAT Turn Out?, in which we look back at predictions of things that were totally going to own Apple and see how that turned out.

(Please note that The Macalope is free to make up as many fake game shows as he likes and is under no obligation to follow up on them later.)

First up: The prediction that Apple Pay had no chance.


“Apple Pay is on pace to account for 10% of all global card transactions.”

Ignore the projection part of this. The projections analysts make are often comically, hilariously, pants-falling-down-ingly, tumbling-into-a-barrel-full-of-cod wrong. For example, The Macalope’s favorite projection was the one made in 2011 saying—and here the the horny one is legally obligated to tell you to clear your mouth of any liquids, food stuffs or confetti before reading further—that Windows Phone would overtake Android by the end of 2015.

If you look around very carefully and examine the smartphone market up close with a giant, novelty-sized magnifying glass that makes your eye look huge from the other side, you will noticed that that did not happen. In fact, the opposite of that happened. Windows Phone was scrapped.

Things move pretty fast in the technology world and market share projections are subject to too many moving parts to be reliable. They’re mostly done to get your highfalutin analamysting firm in the press. And it works. But no one ever goes back to check them. That would be rude. Normally The Macalope would make up some jokingly wrong prediction here and what would be the result of going back and pointing it out to the chastened analyst, but he doesn’t think he can top that Windows Phone projection so he’s not going to bother.