For all the talk of an imminent offensive in Rafah, I don’t sense the timing or conditions are currently right for Israel, either on a political or military level.
Throughout his long political career, Benjamin Netanyahu has believed in getting results through pressure – it’s a doctrine that’s informed his leadership through this war and the painful rollercoaster of hostage negotiations.
Keeping Hamas believing that Israeli forces might storm their last redoubt any day could be seen as a tactic to push for a new ceasefire.
In fact, a ceasefire right now would bring Netanyahu respite every bit as much as it would Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.
It’s been a punishing week for Israel and its reputation after the killing of seven aid workers.
It’s no coincidence that in the days that followed the authorities here conceded to open another crossing for aid into Gaza, said supplies could come through Ashdod port, sent a high-level negotiating team to Cairo with a wide mandate and moved to a new lower-tempo phase of fighting. That’s a lot of damage limitation measures in a few short days.
Image: Residents return to Khan Younis as Israeli troops withdraw
Having withdrawn its forces from southern Gaza, Israel has given itself a card to play in negotiations with Hamas – they won’t withdraw all forces, as Hamas has demanded, but they can frame this move as a significant concession.
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A six-week ceasefire and the release of some, if not all the hostages, would go a long way to achieving one of Israel’s goals – to return all its people.
With a growing number in Israel holding Netanyahu to blame for the absence of a deal, it might also ease domestic protests.
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Image: More than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel in Gaza since October, including more than 15,000 children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry
A weeks-long truce would let more humanitarian aid into Gaza, reduce the tensions on the northern border with Lebanon – assuming Hezbollah sticks to its informal vow to respect a ceasefire – and relieve some of the international pressure on the Israeli government.
It would give IDF forces time to recuperate after months of gruelling war and create time to develop and finesse a plan for Rafah.
By the time the ceasefire eventually breaks down – Israel has never agreed to a permanent one – if Netanyahu’s gamble has paid off, then he will have more freedom to act and the Rafah operation in pursuit of “total victory” would be back on.
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The operation in Khan Yunis lasted four months, Rafah could take at least as long as that, strengthening the embattled Prime Minister’s rejection of new elections while the war continues.
There might only be one IDF brigade left in Gaza, but this war is far from over.
Source : Sky News
