NFL gameday guide: Coach of the Year candidates collide!

The Green Bay Packers are doing special things with Malik Willis, Brian Flores is putting himself back into head coach contention, Travis Kelce is waiting patiently for his moment and the Seattle Seahawks pass rush is thriving. We look ahead to Week Four in the NFL…

Editor’s note…

For most teams across the NFL losing your starting quarterback to a knee injury in Week One would have been a catastrophic call for panic, the season teetering on the edge of irreversible and premature collapse. Not for the Green Bay Packers, not while Matt LaFleur is spinning his magic.

Sometimes it takes a masterful Plan B to truly underline coaching greatness; now, that isn’t to say LaFleur wasn’t already deemed one of the NFL’s premier offensive boffins, but his reaction time and play-calling gymnastics in response to losing Jordan Love has been a welcome reminder that he is a gold-encrusted branch to the Shanahan tree.

Love went down with a knee injury during Green Bay’s kickoff week clash with the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil, the Packers subsequently turning to Malik Willis after acquiring the third-year quarterback in a trade from the Tennessee Titans on August 26. In two weeks LaFleur has tailored an offense specifically to Willis, who played just three games for the Titans last season and has just three career starts to his name since being drafted in the third round in 2022.

Willis had his best game as an NFL quarterback in Week Three as he completed 13 of 19 passes for 202 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 73 yards and a touchdown off six carries to lead Green Bay to a 30-14 win over the Tennessee Titans. LaFleur dialled up the perfect game plan for his young play-caller, orchestrating clear reads while empowering him to use his athleticism on the ground.

LaFleur has used motion at a league-leading rate of 85.9 per cent, his pre-snap shifts fusing with wide receivers aligning in the backfield throwing layer-upon-layer of disguise at opponents. Decoy pulling guards and cross-formation motion men are freezing defenses in read-option concepts, the ease at which LaFleur sells the run paving the way for Willis to succeed. Is it a zone run? Are they setting up the screen? Is Willis bootlegging out? And why is every linebacker sliding left while Jayden Reed is running wide-open in the opposite direction underneath? Don’t worry, too late.

“I just cannot articulate the job that he’s done in a short period of time,” said LaFleur. “People can’t fathom that. I promise you, you guys don’t get it. I know you think you got it, but you don’t get it. What he’s been able to do, I’ve never seen something like this.”

Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator hailed LaFleur ahead of this Sunday’s matchup, suggesting he was having to plan for two offenses in the event of Love’s return. The Packers’ offense currently ranks sixth in dropback EPA and 18th in rush EPA, while sitting fourth in total yards, first in rushing and seventh in scoring.

Between Love’s outstanding first year as starter and now the introduction of Willis, LaFleur is showcasing some of the funkier motion wrinkles that had been restrained during his time with Aaron Rodgers, who famously favoured a more Peyton Manning-esque clear picture of the field as opposed to the bells-and-whistles he felt could compromise pass protection. Funnily enough, Rodgers has started to buy into an increased use of motion with the New York Jets this season.

LaFleur might be the current frontrunner for Coach of the Year, alongside Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell as he continues to pull the strings to Sam Darnold’s career-reviving campaign. The NFL has witnessed Geno Smith reinvent himself, Jared Goff recover from his Los Angeles Rams exit, Baker Mayfield earn himself a payday following his poor treatment with the Cleveland Browns, and now Darnold reap the benefits of elite coaching.

The written-off Darnold is ranked sixth in EPA+CPOE composite (Expected Points Added combined with Completion Percentage Over Expected), having thrown for 657 yards and a league-high eight touchdowns to just two interceptions across a perfect and surprise 3-0 start. Good coaching matters, LaFleur and O’Connell among the league’s most talented.

On the subject of Rodgers, motion and coaches, his Jets face the Denver Broncos this weekend a year on from the four-time MVP quarterback’s ‘keep my coach’s name out your mouth’ response to Sean Payton’s criticism of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Spicy.

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Neil Reynolds and Phoebe Schecter look ahead to the NFL’s Week Four fixtures and make their predictions…

Around the league

• San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan revealed that running back Christian McCaffrey is consulting with a specialist in Germany about his Achilles injury.
• Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James was suspended for one game by the NFL for “repeated violations of playing rules” after being flagged for unnecessary roughness for a hit on Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth.
• The Kansas City Chiefs promoted running back Kareem Hunt to the active roster as he prepares to make his second debut for the Super Bowl champions against the Chargers after re-signing for the team having been cut in 2018.
• Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen returned to practice and is trending towards playing against the Los Angeles Rams following a heel injury.
• 49ers tight end George Kittle was ruled as ‘limited’ as he returned to practice in mid-week after a hamstring injury kept him out against the Rams.
• The New York Jets will be without right tackle Morgan Moses against the Denver Broncos as he recovers from a knee injury.

What to watch in Week Four

Sunday, 6pm – Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Brian Flores is bringing the heat in Minnesota. In a rush-four league, he continues to send the blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL, the results being a league-high 16 sacks and the fourth-highest pressure rate among all defenses. Free agency additions Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel are starring in a system that thrives on rush-and-cover versatility, while Josh Metellus embodies as much as one of the NFL’s most effective utility men who seems to play every position on the Vikings’ defense. The Sam Darnold comeback is the headline in Minneapolis, but Flores is calling his way to head coach contention amid his transformation of the Vikings’ defense.

The Packers meanwhile reaping the rewards of their decision to sign Xavier McKinney in free agency, the former New York Giants safety becoming the first Green Bay player with an interception in each of his first three games of the season in 45 years. He possesses all the attributes needed in a modern safety, from the downfield tracking and ball skills to the sideline-to-sideline play diagnosis and the ability to hit running lanes from the box.

Sunday, 9.25pm – Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers: The Super Bowl champion Chiefs are a perfect 3-0 to start the season with victories over Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals and Kirk Cousins’ Atlanta Falcons, all without really having to rely on their Hall of Fame-bound tight end Travis Kelce. That should scare the rest of the league. Kelce has just eight catches from 12 targets for 69 yards so far this season, a combination of more dedicated coverage and Patrick Mahomes’ growing trust in Rashee Rice, who leads the NFL in yards after catch, seeing the Chiefs find ways to win without No 87. Right now, it isn’t an issue for Kelce nor is it an issue for the Chiefs, who know their tight end’s real season begins in January these days.

For Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers, it remains a Justin Herbert injury watch as he continues to nurse a niggling ankle injury that forced him off during last week’s defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers. It places an even greater emphasis on a refurbished and reinvented Chargers ground game under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, with J.K. Dobbins having opened the campaign with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games before being blunted by TJ Watt and co in Week Three.

Sunday Night Football, 1.20am – Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens: No Stefon Diggs? No problem for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense. Everything was set up for a Khalil Shakir breakout, and the third-year wide receiver is delivering immediate results having caught all 14 of his targets on the year for 168 yards and two touchdowns as his quarterback’s new favourite target. He is currently the frontrunner within a Joe Brady offense built on slick route concepts, multiple looks and a diversity to Buffalo’s pass-catching options, boosted by the ground threat of Allen and James Cook within a balanced system. The Bills are among the NFL’s leaders in motion, Shakir emerging as a starring component to Brady’s desired misdirection.

The Ravens offer their own idea of subterfuge with the defensive dilemma over whether to plan for the Lamar Jackson run, the Derrick Henry run or Todd Monken’s air raid tendencies. At the same time, there is no great secret to what Henry presents, the former Tennessee Titans running back sending a reminder that he remains the league’s most bruising ball carrier with 25 carries for 151 yards and two touchdowns in Week Three’s victory over the Dallas Cowboys and their leaky run defense. Henry against a belligerent Bills defense makes for some fiery trench warfare.

Monday Night Football, 12.30am – Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins: Meet two teams living in quarterback hell right now. For different reasons. Starting in Tennessee, where Brian Callahan continues to tear his hair out over Will Levis and his string of ‘what were you thinking?!’ mistakes and miscues, the second-year play-caller having thrown five interceptions (second-most in the league) including two pick-sixes, while taking a second-most 15 sacks – an added indictment of the Titans’ offensive line. Callahan’s offense currently ranks 29th in total yards, 28th in passing, 20th in rushing and 28th in scoring; they are a mess.

Miami’s wounds are less self-inflicted, and yet another glaring reminder of Tua Tagovailoa’s value to Mike McDaniel’s offense. The Dolphins will quite rightly be without their star quarterback for some time after his latest concussion setback, the on-field consequences of which were evidenced behind a lifeless Skylar Thompson performance and continued offensive line issues in defeat to the Seattle Seahawks. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane were practically non-existent within one of the league’s most innovative motion offense, and that is alarming. Seeing Tim Boyle entering the fold to replace an injured Thompson didn’t help the mood, either. Miami are in danger of their season slipping away.

Monday Night Football, 1.15am – Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions: At this rate, the Seahawks transitioning from Pete Carroll to Mike Macdonald is threatening to become one of the great succession plans of recent times in the NFL. Macdonald’s ascent as one of the league’s young defensive masterminds has resumed immediately in Seattle, where his pass rush currently ranks second in pressure rate while blitzing at the eighth-lowest rate among all teams. Macdonald and British defensive coordinator are having a ball with edge rushers Derick Hall and Boye Mafe, both of whom have three sacks apiece with the latter fulfilling Macdonald’s coveted versatility by also offering production in coverage.

They face a Detroit Lions team that will still feel their offense is yet to hit its stride in the 2024 season, Ben Johnson’s unit having been middle-of-the-pack through the opening three weeks as they seek to match the heights of last year. The interior of Detroit’s offensive line – usually a major strength – has allowed too much pressure on Jared Goff, while the Lions are still yet to stamp down their authority in the ground game, positive signs though arriving in their win over the Arizona Cardinals as David Montgomery managed 105 rushing yards and a touchdown. A hook-and-ladder touchdown was a warning shot from Johnson that they are beginning to wake up. Seattle’s pass rush demands the very best this weekend.

Who said what?

Jason Kelce on criticism of brother Travis on the pair’s podcast New Heights: “There ain’t nobody that I’ve ever played sports with and nobody that anybody’s ever been on a team with that’s loved being out there [more than] Trav. It’s frustrating for me to have to watch and listen to, but I can’t wait for it to turn.”

Bill Belichick speaking on The Pat McAfee Show: “Everybody has liked (Sam) Darnold except the Jets. The people in Carolina I talk to, they really liked him. He was with the Rams, not for very long, they liked him, I think they wanted to re-sign him, he was looking for more of an opportunity than playing behind Stafford. I know that Kevin and some of the coaches in Minnesota, they really like him, too. It seemed like the only people who didn’t like Darnold were the Jets.”

Vikings running back Aaron Jones ahead of facing the Packers for the first time since being released in Green Bay: “I understand it’s a business and I made a lot of great relationships there. I have a lot of respect for the people there and the relationships that I’ve made there and there’s nothing but love. At some point you got to make business decisions, and it may be a hard decision, but you’ve got to make a decision and live with it.”

Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the team handling success: “Everyone’s going to start you-know-what’ing us a little bit. I go back to this quote a lot, but Mike McCarthy said ‘our biggest struggle is going to be handling success,’ back in 2016 in Green Bay, and there’s a lot to that. I think, you know, it’s easier when you’re kind of getting kicked in the teeth to kind of come together, ‘it’s us against the world, it’s us against the big bad media whose saying how bad we are,’ you know? We can kind of come together, but can you still come together and have the same approach when everybody’s kind of starting to sing your praises a little bit.”

Packers quarterback Jordan Love on his recovery from his knee injury: “We’re building it up for sure. And it’s kind of just based on how I’m feeling and basing off of practice today, how I’m feeling and going from there. I feel like I’m getting better every day, moving around, getting out there practising and feeling better.”

Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce has downplayed the suggestion of quarterback controversy: “There’s no issue. Gardner Minshew is the quarterback.”

The stats

• Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 321 passing yards away from becoming the ninth player in NFL history to reach 60,000 career regular season passing yards
• Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt needs half a sack against the Colts on Sunday to overtake DeMarcus Ware (113 games) as the second-fastest player to reach 100 career sacks since the sack became an official statistic in 1982
• Bills quarterback Josh Allen needs three more touchdowns to surpass Patrick Mahomes (231) for most combined passing and rushing touchdowns by a player in his first seven seasons in NFL history
• Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson needs 30 receiving yards against the Packers to overtake Julio Jones (6,201) for the fourth-most by a player in his first five seasons, behind only Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Torry Holt
• Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase needs 68 receiving yards against the Panthers to become the fifth player in the Super Bowl era with at least 4,000 receiving yards and 30 touchdowns in his first 50 games
• Bills right tackle Spencer Brown is the only offensive lineman in the NFL with at least 25 pass blocking snaps without allowing a pressure so far this season

Essential reading

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His genius does not go unappreciated, but the narrative around the Buffalo Bills quarterback might feel a whole lot different were it not for the man with the taper fade mohawk over in Kansas City, who may be Allen’s only superior.

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Watch the Minnesota Vikings take on the Green Bay Packers from 6pm live on Sky Sports NFL this Sunday, followed by Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers at 9.25pm; Also stream with NOW.

Source : Sky Sports