We are in the home straight of the Champions League league phase – with the five British teams looking to accomplish different feats in the new format.
The controversial new Swiss-style system has split opinion, with every single team put in a big 36-league team and facing eight different opponents throughout the season.
Liverpool do not seem to mind it after winning each of their opening five league phase games so far without conceding a goal. Fifteen points has all but secured them a top-eight finish, which secures a last-16 spot.
But can Arne Slot now afford to rotate his team? No. That is because there is an incentive to keep winning as every single finishing place matters in this new Champions League format.
Read below to see all the permutations regarding the rest of the Champions League format…
Who qualifies out of the league phase?
To achieve automatic qualification into the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.
Those in ninth to 24th enter a round of two-legged play-offs in February, with the winners taking the other eight spots in the last 16.
Those who finish ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so will have the second leg at home. Those from 17th to 24th will be unseeded, so have the first leg at home.
Teams that finish anywhere from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from this season’s competition, with no access to the Europa League.
Ok, but if we’re in the top eight, does it matter if I finish first or eighth?
Yes it does. The way the Champions League league phase works is the final league position gives you a specific route – and specific opponents – in the knockout stage draw.
The below graphic shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time ever, the knockout rounds are decided by the league phase – with no separate draws for the last 16, quarter-finals and beyond.
For example, the teams who finish first or second in the league phase will face a team who finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.
Compare that to the team who finishes in seventh or eighth, who could play a team who finishes in 23rd or 24th – but also run the risk of facing the team in ninth or tenth spot – which could be a major European outfit.
The advantage for the team finishing first or second is they will guarantee playing a team in the ‘middle’ of the final Champions League table. Finishing lower down runs the risk of playing a better side.
Is it really an advantage to finish top?
Not necessarily. Particularly this season.
The early struggles of teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain mean a top European side could end up in the “middle” of the Champions League table – thereby coming up against one of the best performing sides.
Currently, Liverpool are top of the league phase table – but the teams currently in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Manchester City and PSV Eindhoven.
So if teams do not do as well as expected in the league phase, it could create some blockbuster last-16 ties, thereby taking away the advantage of finishing in the highest possible spots.
Is there a difference between finishing ninth and 24th?
Again, yes. A big one. And it’s all to do with the play-offs.
The new Champions League format means the team that finishes ninth faces the team in 24th in the play-off round. Tenth plays 23rd, 11th plays 22nd and so on.
So if you just miss out on a top-eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst-performing sides that qualified from the league phase. So the higher you finish, the ‘easier’ game you get.
But again, if teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain struggle in the league phase, you could have top sides meeting each other in the play-off rounds.
How many points do you need to guarantee a top-eight finish?
The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which then guarantees you a last-16 spot in March.
The data also believes 15 points could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta’s 50,000 simulations of the league phase. Liverpool reached that tally last month after five wins from five games.
Meanwhile, 14 points is unlikely to be enough for a top-eight finish.
How many points do you need to guarantee a top-24 finish?
To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.
Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa have already reached that tally, while Celtic and Manchester City are one win away from that total.
However, nine points could also be enough to finish 24th, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations. City and Celtic are one point away from that total, currently.
But just eight points runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.
Opta Predictions: Arsenal, Liverpool in top eight | Villa to get Real Madrid
The Opta supercomputer says Arsenal and Liverpool are set to finish in the top eight, with Arne Slot’s side staying top and the Gunners in third.
On current form, Manchester City and Celtic are predicted to finish in 15th and 18th – which would mean they would face each other in the play-off round in February.
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There would be a mouth-watering tie for 13th-placed Aston Villa, who would get Real Madrid – predicted to finish in 21st – in the play-offs, with the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The supercomputer also says Paris Saint-Germain are on course to finish 26th – so would be eliminated from all European competition at the first hurdle.
Who are the supercomputer’s Champions League favourites?
Liverpool are currently the favourites to win the Champions League, with Slot’s side given a 20 per cent chance of winning the trophy in Munich after a stellar start to the season.
Arsenal are third favourites with 13.2 per cent – just ahead of Pep Guardiola’s Man City – fourth favourites on 9.3 per cent.
Inter Milan are second favourites on 15.8 per cent – with Atalanta, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting Lisbon making up the top ten.
Aston Villa have a 0.6 per cent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic on 0.3 per cent.
When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?
- Knockout round play-offs: February 11/12 and February 18/19, 2025
- Round of 16: March 4/5 and March 11/12, 2025
- Quarter-finals: April 8/9 and April 15/16, 2025
- Semi-finals: April 29/30 and May 6/7, 2025
- Final: May 31, 2025
Where is the Champions League final being held in 2025?
The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on May 31, 2025.
Source : Sky Sports
