A new study published in Nature Medicine, suggests that the risk of developing dementia in the U.S. is more than double than described in previous studies, sitting at around 42 percent for adults above age 55.
If accurate, that risk will result in a rise in annual cases, which will increase from a half million new cases in 2025 to a million new cases in 2060. According to the study authors, this anticipated increase in cases is a product of the age of the population in the U.S., where around 58 million adults are currently above age 65.
“Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55,” said study author and professor of population health Josef Coresh, the founder of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone Health, in a press release.
Read More: The 4 Main Types of Dementia
Dementia Risk Rises
Dementia is a relatively common condition among older adults, tied to declines in thinking, judgement, reasoning, and remembering.
Individuals are at an increased risk of dementia as they age, and have a higher probability of developing the disease if they have high blood pressure or diabetes. (Other factors, including an individual’s lifestyle, diet, and activity, also impact their risk of dementia, with genetics being one of the biggest determinants of the disease.)
To assess the risk of developing dementia in the U.S., the authors of the new study turned to data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS). Sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), the study has followed around 16,000 U.S. adults as they have aged, tracking their vascular and cognitive health since 1987.
Analyzing the data, the authors found that around 3,300 of the approximately 16,000 study participants developed dementia between 1987 and 2020. This revealed a dementia risk of about 42 percent for U.S. adults above age 55, and about 50 percent for U.S. adults above age 75.
The 42-percent risk is more than double than identified in the past. According to the study authors, the unreliability in the reporting and documentation of dementia, particularly in its initial stages, as well as the racial disparity in dementia diagnosis, are to blame for the previous under-representations of the U.S. dementia risk.
Read More: How to Talk to Someone With Dementia
Breaking Down Dementia Demographics
While the increased dementia risk applies to the U.S. population as a whole, the new study suggests that some adults have a higher probability of developing dementia than others. For instance, the study says that the 42 percent risk accounts for a 35 percent risk in men above age 55 and a 48 percent risk in women above age 55, who are at an increased risk of dementia due to their tendency to live longer.
The 42 percent risk also accounts for differences in risk between individuals of different races in the U.S. While annual case rates are anticipated to double for white adults in future decades, they’re anticipated to triple for Black adults, indicating the need to address the dramatic racial disparities in dementia diagnosis and treatment.
“The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers, in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more health care services for those with dementia,” said Coresh in the press release.
Previous studies have shown that public policies can combat dementia, including programs to improve childhood health education and to curb high blood pressure and diabetes. Health policymakers should thus heighten their efforts to encourage equitable, healthy aging for all adults in the U.S., the study authors say, diminishing the burdens of cognitive decline.
Read More: How to Diagnose Dementia: Can You Get Tested for Dementia?
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Sam Walters is a journalist covering archaeology, paleontology, ecology, and evolution for Discover, along with an assortment of other topics. Before joining the Discover team as an assistant editor in 2022, Sam studied journalism at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois.
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