In Europe, the inauguration of Donald Trump will mean a reset in politics, trade and security.
Europeans have heard him talk about cutting support for Ukraine, introducing tariffs and forcing NATO members to massively increase defence spending.
The question, as ever, is whether his actions will match his rhetoric.
If Mr Trump really does reduce support for President Zelenskyy, European nations will struggle to pick up the pieces.
They might offer more money but American weapon production simply cannot be replicated. Ukraine would suffer.
Mr Trump has promised a rapid end to the conflict, but he hasn’t said how.
If Russia, after so much time and loss of life, felt it was suddenly in the ascendency over a weakened Ukraine, it might demand the sort of deal that would unsettle the whole of Eastern Europe.
Mr Trump has previously been ambiguous about his support for NATO, so there will be plenty across Europe who push for their nations to spend more on defence and be less reliant on America.
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And Denmark will continue to push back hard against Mr Trump’s intention of either buying or seizing Greenland.
The Danes will expect, and surely receive, wholehearted backing from both the EU and NATO.
But the diplomats have their work cut out.
Mr Trump is likely to introduce more tariffs against some countries, most notably China.
But will he do the same to Europe, or will he decide that it’s better to bring old friends into the tent?
Certainly Europe, struggling with poor growth in its biggest economies, would desperately want to avoid tit-for-tat tariffs.
European nations will have enough problems dealing with cheap Chinese imports that are dumped in Europe, now they can’t be sold in America. Mr Trump’s protectionism will change global trade.
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There will be other bumps. Prompted by Elon Musk, Mr Trump is likely to back his giant tech companies against European regulation and billions of euros in fines – a row that really could soar.
Mr Musk will also want him to protect American electric cars.
One curious side effect of Mr Trump reducing financial support to Ukraine could be Baltic nations, fearful of further Russian aggression, then trying to earn American support by purchasing US-made weapons.
The happier leaders will be the ones who feel an affinity with the new president.
Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, is a friend and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni shares a public sense of mutual admiration. Both could become more prominent globally.
In Germany, Friedrich Merz will probably be the next chancellor, even if Mr Trump might prefer Germany’s second party, the far right AfD, which has already earned the backing of Mr Musk.
French President Emmanuel Macron has already been speaking to other European leaders about how best to manage Mr Trump’s whims and outbursts.
But Mr Macron has a dysfunctional government stifling him, as well as his own populist opponent – Marine Le Pen.
Mr Macron will still aim to position himself as the most influential voice in his continent’s politics, but Mr Trump may prefer to listen to the growing numbers of European leaders who follow his own MAGA playbook.
Source : Sky News
